The US hot rolled steel coil and cold rolled steel coil market returned from the Labor Day holiday weekend with more evidence of lower prices Tuesday, while some in the market cautiously hoped to see a slight uptick during the fourth quarter.
Platts maintained its daily HRC price assessment at $450-$460/st, although there was some doubt that HRC was still at $460/st. In addition, the Platts CRC assessment was flat at $570-$580/st. All prices are normalized to a Midwest (Indiana) ex-works basis.
A mill source said he believed HRC at $460/st was “definitely a stretch.” However, $450/st “is a pretty normal number and $440/st is out there for a little volume,” he added. “We haven’t really been pushed for less than $440/st.”
Another mill source agreed that pricing had seen a slow drift downward recently. “No one is super excited about their order book,” he said. “We had a decent week last week but not great.”
He noted there was some slight optimism around a pickup in order activity in late October or early November.
“The market overreacts one way or the other” and it is over correcting on the downside with inventory reduction, he said.
The mill source said there had been increased buying between service centers instead of going to mills for orders. He believed it was a positive step in terms of overall inventory reduction but would eventually subside as service centers return to mills as the stock material is depleted.
However, he believed any pricing upside at the end of the year would be capped. Hot rolled steel prices at $500/st would “probably be the best we can hope for” unless there is a major supply disruption, he said, because the strong US dollar and weaker global economy will continue to prevent prices from rising.
